Why Is The Current American Government Shutdown Different (as well as Harder to Resolve)?
Shutdowns have become a recurring element of US politics – however this one feels especially difficult to resolve due to shifting political forces and deep-seated animosity between the two parties.
Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 people are expected to be put on furlough without pay since Republicans and Democrats remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.
Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock have repeatedly failed, with little visibility on an off-ramp in this instance as each side – including the nation's leader – can see some merit in digging in.
Here are the four ways in which things feel different currently.
First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues
The Democratic base has been demanding over recent periods that their party more forcefully fights the current presidency. Currently Democratic leaders have an opportunity to show their responsiveness.
Earlier this year, Senate leader was fiercely criticised for helping pass GOP budget legislation thus preventing a government closure in the spring. Now he's holding firm.
This presents an opportunity for Democrats to show they can take back some control from an administration pursuing its agenda assertively with determined action.
Opposing the Republican spending plan comes with political risk as citizens generally may become impatient as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.
Democratic representatives are leveraging the shutdown fight to put a spotlight on ending healthcare financial support together with GOP-backed government healthcare cuts for the poor, both facing public opposition.
They are also trying to curtail the President's use of his executive powers to cancel or delay funding approved by Congress, which he has done in international assistance and other programmes.
Second, For Republicans, they see potential
The President along with a senior aide have openly indicated of the fact that they perceive an opening to advance further reductions in government employment implemented during in the Republican's second presidency to date.
The President himself stated recently that the government closure provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", adding he intended to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".
The White House said it would be left with a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson described this as "fiscal sanity".
The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, but the White House has been in discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, the budgeting office, under the leadership of the key official.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the halting of government financial support for Democratic-run parts of the country, such as NYC and Chicago.
3. There's little trust between both parties
While previous shutdowns have been characterised by extended negotiations between the two parties in an effort to get government services running again, currently there seems little of the same spirit for compromise presently.
Conversely, animosity prevails. Political tensions persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other regarding the deadlock's origin.
House Speaker a Republican, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and maintaining positions over a deal "for electoral protection".
Simultaneously, the opposition's chief levelled the same accusation against their counterparts, saying that a Republican promise to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume can not be taken seriously.
The administration leader personally has escalated tensions through sharing a controversial AI-generated image featuring the opposition leader along with another senior opposition figure, where the legislator appears wearing traditional headwear and a moustache.
The representative and other Democrats denounced this as discriminatory, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.
4. The US economy is fragile
Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of the federal workforce – more than 800,000 people – to be put on unpaid leave due to the shutdown.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors and other kinds of government activity tied to business comes to a halt.
A shutdown also injects fresh instability within economic systems already being roiled by changes ranging from tariffs, previous budget reductions, enforcement actions and technological advancements.
Economic forecasters project potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points from national economic expansion weekly during the closure.
However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns after major environmental events.
This might explain partially why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.
Conversely, analysts say should administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, the damage could be more long-lasting.